After last year’s polling debacle I don’t suppose it would be a wise decision, regardless of which end of the political spectrum you may reside, to put much faith in any poll having to do with the next election. But I must admit that it does do my heart good to hear that, it would at least appear, Republican Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, one of President Donald Trump’s more vitriolic critics, should be worried about keeping his Senate seat. And such news comes from the recently released JMC Analytics poll which said that if the GOP primary for the 2018 election was held over the weekend challenger Kelli Ward would be ahead with 47 percent, and Flake would be behind with 21 percent. Twenty-nine percent of Republican voters said they were undecided. Flake and Trump have attacked one another, and Trump recently tweeted, “Great to see that Dr. Kelli Ward is running against Flake Jeff Flake, who is WEAK on borders, crime and a non-factor in Senate. He’s toxic!”
Now while this was in no way a direct endorsement of the former state senator, Trump allies have certainly gotten behind Dr. Ward. A pro-Trump super PAC, ‘Great America PAC’, spent $20,000 helping Ward, according to federal election filings. In addition, prominent Trump donor Robert Mercer gave $300,000 to Ward. Mercer previously gave to Ward’s 2016 campaign in which she failed to beat RINO John McCain in the state’s GOP primary. One result in Monday’s poll that bodes well for Ward is that 67 percent of likely Republican voters have an unfavorable opinion of Flake and just 22 percent like him. Forty-three percent of those polled have a favorable opinion of Ward. The poll also said that 66 percent of likely GOP voters think someone other than Flake should be the GOP nominee for the 2018 race. Granted, there is still a very long way to go before the election, and no doubt a great many things can happen before it gets here. But it is cause for hope.
JMC Analytics’ John Couvillon, shows Flake in almost irreparable shape ahead of his reelection bid in 2018. That an incumbent U.S. Senator like Flake could be polling as low as 21 percent in his own primary, while a challenger like Ward has pulled 26 points ahead of him at 47 percent, is almost unthinkable with nearly a full year to go until the August 2018 primary. Three percent of the electorate said they would vote for Nicholas Tutora, another candidate, and 29 percent are undecided, when asked which candidate they would vote for between Ward, Flake, and Tutora. When asked if Flake should be re-nominated in 2018, it was a rather astounding 66 percent who said that someone else should represent the Republican Party on the Senate ticket next year while just 22 percent said Flake should be re-nominated with 13 percent saying they are undecided. Undecided? What, have they been living under a rock?
Fifty-six percent said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate if President Donald Trump endorsed someone in the primary, while 19 percent said they would be less likely, and 25 percent said a Trump endorsement would make no difference. The survey also asked respondents about Trump’s criticism of Flake as “weak on borders, crime, and a non-factor in the Senate.” It noted that Trump “wants to unseat Senator Flake in the Republican primary,” and asked if that makes voters more or less likely to back Flake in 2018. In response, a solid majority—60 percent—said that Trump’s opposition to Flake’s reelection makes them less likely to support the senator, while only 21 percent said it makes them more likely to back Flake, and 19 percent said it makes no difference. A whopping 76 percent of respondents in the JMC Analytics poll approve of President Trump’s job performance, while just 21 percent disapprove and six percent have no opinion
In his analysis of the polling data it was Mr. Couvillon who detailed just how big of a deal it actually is that Flake is currently so far underwater in this recent polling. He said, “Next year’s Senate race already has the potential to be competitive, given that (1) Senator Flake won his first term in 2012 with a 49-46% plurality (running behind Mitt Romney’s 54%), and (2) in last year’s Presidential election, Arizona moved perceptibly towards the Democrats, as Donald Trump only carried the state 49-45% (In 2012, Mitt Romney carried the state 54-45%). But while the general election will be a challenge (Arizona is one of two Republican held Senate seats that Democrats could put in play next November), Senator Flake has a more immediate problem: he faces a substantial primary challenge as well.”
Mr. Couvillon then went on to say, “On the primary ballot test, Kelli Ward has a 47-21% lead over Flake (with wide leads over the incumbent among virtually every demographically significant group), despite Flake’s having nearly two decades of Congressional experience. And Flake also faces underwater approval ratings (his unfavorability rating is 67-22%, while Ward’s approval is 43-23% positive) nearly identical to the overwhelming negative opinion Arizona Republican primary voters have of him: by a 66-22% margin, they would prefer someone else over the incumbent in the primary.”
Couvillon continued by noting how big of a deal Trump involvement may play in the race. He said, “President Trump is still fairly popular (76-21% approval among Republican likely primary voters), and that popularity also translates to the value of a Trump endorsement in this contest: respondents by a 56-19% margin would be more likely to support President Trump’s endorsed candidate. That sentiment is especially potent when President Trump makes an incumbent (in this case, Senator Flake) the subject of his ire, such as his August 17 tweet dismissing Sen. Flake as “toxic” and a “non-factor” in the U.S. Senate. JMC tested the impact of that message, and on the basis of that tweet, respondents would by a 60-21% margin be less likely to support Flake (those more likely to support Flake already support him 76-5% on the ballot test, while those less likely to support Flake support Ward 68-5%). In summary, Senator Flake faces a substantial primary challenge from Kelli Ward, and this race could determine partisan control of the U.S. Senate.”
And it was this past Sunday evening that Dr. Ward appeared on Breitbart News on ‘SiriusXM 125 the Patriot Channel’ to highlight her challenge against Flake. And it was on that show that Dr. Ward said, “There are so many reasons” that Flake is tanking in the polls. And she went on to say, “His popularity wasn’t even very high before he started on this anti-Trump tirade that he has been on. You know he has been a Never Trumper forever. He was a Never Trumper during the primary. He said that Donald Trump was not his 14th choice to be our nominee. After Donald Trump fought his way through that field of contenders in that primary process, he still said that Donald Trump should get out and that America deserves better.” She said, “That’s what he was featured in Hillary Clinton’s campaign commercial about.” This guy Flake is the personification of why it’s so important that President Trump drain ‘The Swamp.’
Anyway, Dr. Ward went on to say, “And since Donald Trump’s been in the White House he has been a huge thorn in his side. He came out with his book, his ‘manifesto’ to conservatives, basically putting us down and belittling us because we just don’t know what is happening in Washington, D.C., and in the world, and he needs to tell us and he needs to pat us on the head and tell us what conservatism is all about, forgetting that the election of 2016 was a mandate here in our country for people who want what Donald Trump told us he was going to give us: the secure border, stop illegal immigration, repeal Obamacare, fix the tax code, grow the economy, make sure the military is the strongest military in the world. Those are the things that people want, and those are the things that Jeff Flake as well as other people that dwell in the swamp are standing in the way of.”
And what should be of even more concern to the good senator from Arizona is the fact that the JMC Analytics survey is hardly the only polling organization currently showing him to be in such a dire situation. Because a HighGround Public Affairs survey conducted from Aug. 18 to Aug. 19 of 273 “high efficacy Republican and PND/Independent voters” with a margin of error of 5.93 percent also found that Ward was leading Flake by 14 points. She was at approximately 42 percent in that survey, while Flake was down at around 28 percent. So it would seem that things have only gotten worse for Flake since then. And deservedly so. This guy could very easily jumped onboard the ‘Trump Train’ and assisted in getting this country back on the road to recovery after eight years of the worst president in modern American history. But nope, he just couldn’t bring himself to do it. So here’s to hoping that soon it’ll be Senator Ward!
But now comes the rumor that Sheriff Joe Arpaio may be considering that he too is interested in taking on Flake for the senate seat. Now no offense to good Sheriff Joe, but that would be nothing short of a disaster! How about, instead, we have ‘Sheriff Joe for GOVERNOR’ of Arizona, but definitely not Senator! I think it’s fair to say that Dr. Ward has EARNED her spot here and has a YUGE Lead! If he was to enter the race that would nothing more than to guarantee that, short of another brain tumor diagnosis, we’d would likely be saddled with Flake another 6 Years!! Arizona needs one, I repeat ONE, primary challenger to Flake. The RINOs will likely throw in a Potemkin candidate to further dilute the anti-Flake vote. All other potential challengers should simply stay away. I’m thinking that Dr. Kelli Ward has this one covered and will be the only one to get any money from me.
So here’s Plan A going from here: In the GOP, we wipe out Flake, Strange, and Heller in the primaries. On the Democrat side we target McCaskill in MO, Tester in MT, Donnelly in IN, Manchin in WV, Heitkamp in ND, Stabenow in MI (go Kid Rock!), Nelson in FL, Brown in OH, Frankin in MN, Kaine in VA, and Casey in PA. Can you imagine 14 new conservative Senators in the Senate helping pass Trump’s agenda of lower taxes, lower immigration, and ‘The Wall?’ McConnell would be so beside himself that he might even go so far as to blow his brains out. We take out ‘RINO Ryan in 2018 by donating and voting for Paul Nehlen in Wisconsin’s 1st District! We replace McConnell in 2020 by drafting KY Rep. Thomas Massie, who has a 100% Conservative Rating. Also, we keep donating to Dr. Ward to assist in her effort to take out Jeff Flake, the UN Globalist-Open Borders/Amnesty Snake in 2018! Also, we need to convince Sheriff Joe to stay out of the way and allow Dr. Ward to win! There’s no Plan B.
And here’s one final warning to all of our lying-sack-of-shit, back-stabbing RINOs. They had better start getting behind our president, and the sooner they do that the longer their life expectancy, electorally speaking or course, will be. Because otherwise they all just might be looking for a new job in a little over a year. They don’t seem to understand that Trump has 60% or 70% of Republican voters and 35% or 40% of all voters who will vote for Trump no matter what he does. So they either need to get with the program, or get out of the way of those whose mission has become the saving of what’s left of this country after eight years of Obummer. I always get a rather sizable kick out of watching President Trump whenever he starts naming names of all our pathetic sellouts. It’s about time we had someone willing to play real hardball with these pretend-wannabe-conservative-RINO-Republicans. I’ve had it with the whole lot of them, Flake included!